"A good solution to a well-posed decision problem is almost always a smarter choice than an excellent solution to a poorly posed one. The way you frame your decision at the outset can make all the difference."

— Hammond, Keeney, and Raiffa, Smart Choices

What this masterclass is

A working playbook synthesized from Vanderbilt Owen's MGT 6452 Managerial Decision Making course (Spring 2026): 14 lecture decks, 8 academic readings, 4 worksheets and templates, plus class artifacts. The goal isn't to summarize the course — it's to give you a ready-to-use operating system for thinking and deciding well under pressure, ambiguity, and political constraint.

If you read it cover-to-cover, expect ~5–7 hours. If you treat it as reference, expect to return to it for years.

How to use it

First pass (60 minutes): Read this page, then skim each module's opening section and cheat sheet. You'll come away with a mental map of the territory and know which modules to deep-read first.

Deep-read pass (per module): When you face a real decision — a hire, a strategic choice, a disagreement on your team — pull the relevant module. Each module ends with a cheat sheet you can keep open in a second window during the actual decision.

Spaced review: The 11th module ("Closing the Loop") includes a Decision Journal protocol. Use it. Most of the value of these frameworks compounds over months, not minutes.

The 11 modules

All 11 module pages are listed at the bottom of this page (Notion auto-links the children). Click any title to deep-read.

1. Foundations — Critical thinking, good judgment, and why process beats outcome
2. The Argument Layer — Building, mapping, and stress-testing arguments
3. Auditing Judgment — Analogies, intuition, bias, and noise
4. Problem Definition — The most underrated skill in management
5. Choosing Among Alternatives — MADA, AHP, and Even Swaps
6. Decisions Under Uncertainty — Decision trees and expected value
7. Bayesian Reasoning for Managers
8. Organizational Decision Architecture — CRAFT, RAPID, and JEM